GOOD TIMING: THE WINNING STRATEGY OF WISE BETTORS
Despite the preparation that coaches and players put into a football game, sometimes it just takes one play to send a game in a particular direction. Remember Super Bowl XLVIII, when the game began with a bad snap for Denver that resulted in a safety, and then Seattle was off to the races in a rout? It happened again in the 2021 wild card game between Cleveland and Pittsburgh, when the Steelers gave up a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage, as a snap went over Ben Roethlisberger’s head, and the Browns recovered in the end zone, on the way to a 28-point first quarter and an eventual win. Sometimes momentum matters…and sometimes it doesn’t.
When Momentum Matters…and When It Doesn’t
As a savvy price per head agent, you will be able to manage in-game betting, and you will get a sense of how the momentum can go back and forth. Sometimes, teams jump out to leads that look insurmountable, but then something happens in the game to shift it back, or the team that got out to the early lead runs out of steam, and the other team starts coming back.
We saw these three different times in the lead-up to Super Bowl LIV, when the Kansas City Chiefs were down by at least ten points in each of their three playoff games, including the Super Bowl itself. Each time, though, they were able to claw back from the brink and ended up winning the game. In their win over Houston, it was the first playoff game in NFL history when a team trailed by at least ten but then won by at least 20 points.
A lot of the time, it will depend on a team’s track record, and a team’s quarterback. When Seattle ran all over Denver, Denver didn’t have much of a reputation as a fast-moving offense. Instead, they relied heavily on their defense. When the Browns ran out to that big lead over Pittsburgh, the Steelers had a great quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, but he had struggled down the stretch during the regular season. He threw for over 500 yards in the playoff loss – but also had four interceptions. In the case of the Chiefs, they have Patrick Mahomes, who has the reputation as one of the league’s most reliable quarterbacks when you need a scoring drive. So these are things to keep an eye on as you manage your live betting.
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